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repost: Crude Tango or Waltz or square dance.

 

Crude has formed a new dance step that lightened all of our wallets in the past year. We’re all aware of the meteoric rise in crude oil prices but did you ever stop to notice the rhythm it follows? As a trader we see this every single day. They are called “technicals”. Support occurs when price stops depreciating and starts appreciating and resistance occurs when price stops appreciating and reverses to begin its depreciation. Notice the resistance become support very close to the large round numbers. 70, 80, 90, 100…etc. So now that you know the secrets of day trading; you ask, “What does it all mean?” We’re currently at $120/bbl. Based on technical patterns it would be logical to say price will return to $130-135 area before touching $110. After touching $110 we should see $120 again before we see $100. If you understand the pattern you’re guaranteed to test out of 2^nd grade. Now that you know what makes the world go around you ask, “Why didn’t crude return to $140 after touching $130?” Well as you can see price bounced off $130 for two and a half days, but failed to rally to kiss $140 goodbye. There were so many sellers in the market they quickly ran over the buyers for lower prices. This is where experience comes in to play. In my limited experience on this rock hurtling through space at 18.5 miles per second I’ve noticed a couple things. Right now I’ll spare you everything but my trading experience. When a strong support level is broken traders will usually default to protocol on the next level. Since we broke through $130 like a smoldering lead balloon it would be logical to predict $120 will provide much more support and return us to tempo. Something I neglected to touch on is tempo. Price occurs on a scale of time just like everything we experience in the human condition. Some times are faster than others and some just take too damn long. At present crude has hovered near the $120 support for 5 days. Five days would be a reasonable tempo to stand on support. Price has returned to $128.50 since touching $120. Hey nobody’s perfect. Missing $130 by $1.50 might get you in the top 3 on Dancing With the Stars. The moral of the story is that the odds are stacked in our favor that we’ll see $110 in the next week.

repost; Indices trade calls

The USDCHF long should be done here.

On the 15minute timeframe it appears long EURUSD at the end of the day and 38% fib is a gimme long at 1.5691. I have a rule not to trade the wild price action of rate adjustments and today was the wildest thing I’ve seen. I’m going to let a sleeping dog lie here and I’ll be back on it Monday pointing out the best swing trades and end of day reversion trades.

 

USDCHF still long

We’re looking to take USDCHF long off the table sometime on July 3^rd. We think that is when consolidation will occur and an optimal exit will present itself. This trade has been plagued by oil and gold breaking highs. This trade is based on mean reversion of currency indices as they are easier to forecast than actual pairs. In the attached image anyone can see the CHF and USD currencies are at extremes. If I show you a historical chart of these indices you’ll quickly see that currencies do not stay at extremes for a long duration and they tend to move up and down for similar durations with similar angles.

You might think the purple currency on the bottom of the screen is ideal for appreciation but that is the CA dollar and it’s the most volatile currency on the index indicator. I’m watching it from the higher timeframes waiting for it to really hit bottom; then we’ll look to the hourly or 15minute indicator for likely entry against the most overbought currency. That should happen by July 10^th and I’m expecting EUR to be the currency we sell against the CA dollar. That trade might be a short EURCAD for 2 weeks duration when we confirm the entry.

 

Long USDCHF

We are long USDCHF here at 1.0270 because we couldn’t get filled lower despite our charts going lower. Regardless it seems like a solid position and we’ll hold for a day or near close of Friday; tomorrow.

Catching falling daggers is not good for your health

I know I know. Catching falling daggers is not good, but look at what we’re forming down here on S&P. It looks like we’re forming a bottom. If we can hold today’s low and move above 50% of yesterday the trend is dead and we should be looking to buy until we get near 1330. Then reassess. This might be the low of the year right here. If this is not the low of the year I would be looking for it in the next few weeks.

Forex trade calls AUDUSD 5min TL short

Forex trade calls.

Hit AUDUSD short off the little TL.

Forex trade calls EURUSD

We want to see another small push up then a break down through the little TL for a sell confirmation.  Crude at highs is messing with prices and causing USD weakness.

Forex Trade Calls. Forex Capital Management Calls.

Forex Trade Calls.  Capital Management Calls.

We are in a wild market.  Carry currency pairs are disconnected from S&P which means global risk management systems are drawing down which means liquidity is scarce which lends to the downward spiral of volatility until something breaks the chain ie. a large news event that straightens the direction of the market and gets everyone on the same page.

Crude has been the driver of most of the disconnect from what I can see.  Global risk systems play crude along with currencies as a hedge so when there are disconnects you can imagine large funds are drawing down as their risk models are blown apart.  As they draw down they lose credit and so the downward volatility continues.  So to restate the concept we are in a muddy time right now which I predict will be resolved during Housing Starts data released from the USA in a few hours.  It’s kinda like the electric shock used to restart a fibrillated heart.

Forex Trade Calls London 11:30am.

www.midwesterncapital.com capital management

forex trade calls hourly breakdown

FOREX trade calls startup hourly breakdown is very bearish for the day.  A laundry list of news will keep traders guessing every hour today into the NY session.  Fair prices after this meteoric rise are near the 50% retracement from Monday’s low to Wednesday’s high.

Forex trade calls USDJPY trendline

Forex trade calls USDJPY trendline system.

USDJPY is overextended here and is unstable.  We’ll take a close below the trendline when it gives it to us.  We have US CPI news today.  No trading 30 minutes before news.

 

Update we did not take USDJPY short because UK unemployment was being released as the USDJPY touched trendline resistance.

 

USDJPY setup weekly and 4hr forex trade calls

The weekly has resist coming around 50 area.  You need to connect on the 15minute chart to be accurate.  We should see strong resist from the 4hr td line retest before we ever touch the weekly line.  This should be a great area to hold short until an ABC move down forms; then cover.

Prognosis is sell on first touch until an ABC forms on the 5minute chart with a definable “A” wave down “B” chop wave sideways and a little bit up then “C” down equal to “A”.

Forex trade calls USDJPY trendline bounce

Forex analysis Crude oil fundamentals

Holy Cow!

SPR is shut down until we see $75 a barrel.  WHAT A COINCIDENCE?!!!!!  I just posted my synopsis and I hear the Squawk box say Senate has passed the amendment veto proof to end the Bush madness of buying speculative oil.  This is huge folks.  Expect to see $116.80/barrel after today and expect to see $106 the following day and expect to see sub 100 the following day.

 

Forex trades and crude oil trades

Crude at all time highs again.  Who does this?  When will the SPR get it through its thick skull that speculation is driving this market 100% and they are aiding and abedding the speculators.  When SPR says we no longer honor this price of crude and will only buy at $60 barrel we’ll see a massive selloff in crude and you’ll see several Wall Street speculators blow up to the tune of 10’s of billions.  Crude has been run up on speculation and a weak US Dollar.  There is no merit in 100%+ higher oil prices in one year of rabid speculation.  I’ll make a prediction now.  Sooner or later; preferably sooner, we’re going to see someone do something about this and the crooks are going to get very angry while we watch oil prices gap down 30-50% overnight.  This run up is not going to selloff slowly.  My guess is dealing desks are seeing massive purchases of Crude Put Options right now trying to time the monumental landslide.  Of course those standing next to the SPR might catch wind of the selloff before anyone and overleverage their margin accounts short Crude and stand to make 300% windfall profits in 12 hours.

Forex trade calls and crude oil fundamental analysis.

Forex trade calls GBPJPY long trade. Potential.

It looks like we will be going long GBPJPY soon.  Let’s allow a deeper pullback and a bottom formation in the candles before going long.  I’ll most likely confirm with td line break.  This might also end up being the end of our GBPCHF swing trade we made 2 weeks ago at the beginning of these blogs.

Forex trade calls blogs.

forex trade calls update USDJPY

Beware of Bernanke Speech.

We will be closing ahead of the speech in less than an hour.  Also watch the 5minute trendlines on the bottom side.  If we break them short this trade is broken and we’ll flatten and wait until after news and Bernanke’s speech.

Forex trade calls USDJPY.  Intraday forex scalping system

 

FOREX Trade Call. USDJPY long

This is Forex intraday scalping system.  Long at 103.84 on trendline break with momentum.

USDCHF bounce

Buy the bounce at 24 area and scalp it.

The GBPJPY move today was very profitable.  We grabbed pips on the first part of the move with a tight stoploss.

Daily USDJPY trendline setup

This is a great setup.  We target the trendline around 104.80 for a sell.  If we get filled the USDJPY should drop 40 pips or more.  We’ll look for an ABC pattern to be created on bounce down from this daily trendline.

This daily trendline bounce would serve as confirmation of a larger move down as well so we’ll have to keep an eye on the move from the larger timeframes for the next 2 days.

 

 

Missed it by that much. USDCHF FOREX 15minute scalp

Don’t feel left out.  We missed the short as well.

Now this is what we see. I’d like to get short USDCHF on the retrace.

 

Crude at highs?

Looks to me like Crude is ready to sell off today or tomorrow.  We’ve played out a daily ABC pattern perfectly and we’ve broke through a 1hr support vector.  Bottom side support is around 112.50 next week.

110.50 is the objective and should be reached in <30 days.

USDCHF td line

Close above this top trendline will indicate a move higher potentially worth 160 pips from the point of 15minute break.

May 7th Scalp Setup

We have a USDJPY scalp done for the day off a high percentage 1 hour trendline. We are setting up for a breakout now. There might be one more scalp bounce intraday off the 15minute td lines. Try to confirm USDJPY and USDCHF today for added confidence per trade. EURJPY GBPJPY are moving in chop consolidation; avoid trend trading or breakout trading for a while on these two. News today was very bearish for UK and EU. Let's see what US has for pending home sales for the remainder of the day.

looking for a sell on the blue dot

I’ll be looking for a sell on the blue circle of this chart around: 105.22.

These bounce trades on a 15minute chart are usually good for 20 pips.

GBPJPY outlook

Could be bearish if we stay under longer timeframe td lines.

This will correlate well with S&P500.

 

ABC GBPUSD scalp short

Wow Oil hits new highs and I thank God we exited right before that happened because some things still incite panic in even the coolest traders (I’m not one of the coolest traders).  We covered our GBPUSD short for 3 pips just before we saw EURUSD confirming the same thing and the EURUSD worked out much better.  Boo hoo.  It’s been a profitable scalping day all in all.  The news events deviated well and provided easy scalping.

 

USDJPY ABC + trendline = pips

USDJPY ABC’s.  Easy as 123’s.

GBPUSD ABC short

ABC correction on GBPUSD.

Look for short after 5minute ABC pattern plays out.

Remember your ABC's; wave A equals wave C.

GBPUSD 4hr trendline bounce

Missed this bounce trade by 3 pips.  We were salivating watching this setup.  4hr trendlines like this don’t come by every day so when they do you need to hit them.  our reason for waiting out until touching was the very bearish GBP news previous to this move down.  We grabbed 14 pips in the middle of the news move and waited after touching a 1hr trendline.

GBPJPY ABC

GBPJPY ABC pattern.  Should continue later.  Look for GBP weakness today.

 

Here is a reversal on USDCHF.  ABC played out on the long side.  Take short on a 5min close below channel.

ABC's everywhere on USDJPY

This is a good sign USDJPY is making a 15minute correction.

 

Confirm here

We might see a big selloff soon.  I’ll be focusing on breaking lows of GBPJPY around 206.45 with a stop at previous swing highs and a target at 205.94.

 

 

I would normally say SELL right here but this is the support area we were talking about previously

This is the pre NFP gap support on USDJPY USDCHF we were talking about.  So I’m done for the day and I’ll be back for London session at 7am their time.  I think we could start at 6:30am London time tomorrow as a matter of fact. 

Forex trade calls

 

Talk about a thin session in the forex markets.

London is out on May Day Holiday and I see JPY will be out as well for Greenery Day.  ForexFactory calendar is a convenient place to digest  what’s going on day to day.  Based on the conflicting 15minute trendline breaks I see it would be safer to return during US session to begin the week.  When I take a 15minute trendline break I confirm with a correlated pair to increase my winning %.  For the most part carries seem to be wandering North as they were in Asian session; however USDCHF is still moving down.  In the images below I like to look to USDJPY USDCHF EURJPY GBPJPY GBPCHF to be in line moving the same direction and EURGBP to be moving opposite carries as a confirmation tool.  For the most part I expect EURUSD and GBPUSD to confirm each other and EURUSD and USDCHF to inversely confirm each other.  I’ll be back in 5 hours to trade the US session.  We have a news event at 10am NY time that should bring liquidity and scalping to the forex market.

 

Sunday Warm up Image USDCHF USDJPY EURJPY GBPJPY

 

Sunday warm up May 4th 2008

Start your forex engines!  Or commodity or futures.  Whatever market you are trading.  We’ll try to accommodate you.

Sunday evening in the US is when I start drawing my vector or trendlines.  It’s really nice to delete all objects and start fresh from the weekly chart connecting significant highs and lows to form valid trendlines.

At this time gaps from the weekend are visible and attempting to be closed.  At this time I see USDCHF has not closed its gap to the upside.  We’ll look for that gap to close before making any trades, because if a gap is open there is uncertainty in the market.  Since all pairs are related if we went short USDJPY on a trendline break the USDCHF gap might stop us out as it pulls up the USD just to close the gap.  In the meantime carry pairs are wandering north waiting for direction/liquidity to enter the market.

We’ll be looking to enter the market around 8am London time to give the FOREX Capital of the world a chance to decide on a direction.  Feel free to use my trendlines as support and resistance.  Be sure to catch up on our scalping method at the Forex System Blog.  Our main system is found on the Forex Trade Call and Fundamental site as well.  Trade well.

Techie anyone?

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done for the day, final update

I’m done for the day. I apologize for the inconvenience but we have a house guest and people running around including through the office so I’m calling it a day to avoid confusion during trading which tends to result unfavorably.

Here is a last minute image of what I see developing on the carries. S&P seems to reflect a bearish outlook. I’ll remind everyone the Daily chart from S&P looks bearish as well. By the time this post hits we should have confirmed short signals on the 15min EJ and GJ.

Thanks for following along.

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Another live trader

http://oracleforex.com/
This is a friend of mine who is offering a simple forex system. If you are someone looking for a simple system whether it be trade calls or purchasing the system I do like this one. As you can tell from my trade setups my system is not for a beginner. I look to take trades on confirmed trendline breaks or bounces. I'm just throwing this out there. Don't take this as solicitation.
Finally the resolution issue is fixed. I had to limit my resolution to 640 x 480 which is 4:3 aspect ratio and Google approved for broadcast, so from now on I'll try to use that ratio so you can see what I'm talking about. Also I'll be redoing all my intro videos this weekend.

Potential setup for short USDCHF post NFP 15minute

This is what we are looking at right now. Remember we need to see a legitimate bounce off the trendline to take the break.

Closing the gap post NFP

This seems to be a move to close the gap.  Remember we identified banks were net short ahead of release expecting a bad number out of US to short Equities and USDJPY.  Keep your eyes on EURUSD and USDJPY to close the gap.  Use both as confirmation.

 

 

Post NFP assessment

USDCHF has put in a day's work with 122 pips from the bang. I don't expect much more upside today as traders square ahead of the weekend. There are rumors of Russia revaluing their ccy which means wild spikes and that means banks will be exiting or hedging ahead of close today.



We'll be looking to take 15minute trendline breaks as usual but our targets today are very tight.

Thin Trading Ahead of NFP. "is this record broken?"

It's a typical pre-NFP Friday morning. What am I doing awake at this hour? Judging by this image EURJPY would like to crash down through this 15min trendline and continue the daily trendline break from 2 days ago.

Thin trading ahead of FOMC continued

GBPCHF is being defiant right now but I suspect we'll see more downside which will pull EURJPY EURCHF down with it. Regardless it's thin trading ahead of FOMC and then NFP on Friday. Keep these higher timeframe charts in mind as you place trades on the 15min trendline breaks. Something I like to do with daily and 4hour charts is play the trendline bounce. Rather than wait for a close through the trendline I'll enter as the pair reaches the line for a bounce. This is a very effective strategy which typically yeilds greater than 30 pips depending on pair and timeframe. Try for yourself. Draw the td lines and test it out.

Thin trading ahead of FOMC

Daily analysis shows EURJPY has downside risk that looks real until EURCHF reaches its daily trendline. I can't say we'll see a day full of selloff because GBPCHF has yet to show it can hold lower.

USDCHF Near Term Trendline Update in Our Long Term Bull Trend

This USDCHF move up could suffer an unobstructed retracement to the blue circle area where we find near term support from previous trend lines and fibonacci retracement. The USDCHF is also correlated to the movements on Wall Street and the broader index (S&P 500). Our main fundamental analysis is at our other blog.

GBPJPY S&P Correlation Short Trade

This is the correlation confirmation between GBPJPY and S&P today.

Equities on Wall Street S&P selloff ahead

We're looking for another pullback in this uptrend now based on the 4hour chart. I trade FOREX pairs so I'll be looking to profit on a short GBPJPY which correlates very well with the S&P. The reason for this correlation will be the topic of a post on The Fundamental Blog later today.

Forex trade calls

This blog will be used for the sole purpose of profitable trade calls and education of how to take or modify trade calls made by professional traders. Trades will be made on Forex majors and crosses by skilled professional traders. Hold times for trades range from 5 minutes to 2 weeks.
Our other blog; financial world market smart blog will offer similar trade calls and advanced fundamental analysis that you won't find on major news outlets.
Forex trade calls is designed to help relatively new traders all the way up to advanced professionals. The goal of forex trade calls; like any forex trading system is to make money.
Our other blog will update fundamentals and longer term forex swing trades. The content we provide is typically not available anywhere else. There will be some posts made on forums like ForexFactory where we will be making news updates on fundamentals or trade calls.

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